Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
